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Hamish Thornton v Dafydd Lewis (Thu 13 Sep 2018)

Match won by Hamish Thornton. Result: 11-8,11-6.

Starting level for Hamish Thornton: 3,318, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Dafydd Lewis: 1,685, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Hamish Thornton to win as he is currently playing 97% better than Dafydd Lewis.

Hamish Thornton won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Hamish Thornton played 56% better than Dafydd Lewis in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Hamish Thornton was taking it easy by anything up to 12%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 2,579 and 3,318 without affecting his level.

In this case, Hamish Thornton played at level 2,777 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Hamish Thornton would normally have been playing at level 2,925 (based on typical behaviour), Dafydd Lewis played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.3%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 3.8% respectively.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Hamish Thornton changes to 0% and Dafydd Lewis changes to +2.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Hamish Thornton becomes 0% and for Dafydd Lewis becomes +2.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Isle of Man Manx Pronto Dave Karran Memorial Tournament 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Hamish Thornton: 88%, Dafydd Lewis: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Hamish Thornton: 78%, Dafydd Lewis: 79%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Hamish Thornton: 3,326, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Dafydd Lewis: 1,728, level confidence: 79%.