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Liam Davies v David Freer (Thu 13 Sep 2018)

Match won by David Freer. Result: 7-11,7-11.

Starting level for Liam Davies: 1,448, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Starting level for David Freer: 1,240, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Liam Davies to win as he is currently playing 17% better than David Freer.

David Freer won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Freer played 56% better than Liam Davies in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like David Freer actually played at a level of 1,676 and Liam Davies at a level of 1,071. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 35% to match this result.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 23% and 23% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Freer changes to +23% and Liam Davies changes to -23%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Freer becomes +11.4% and for Liam Davies becomes -10.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Isle of Man Manx Pronto Dave Karran Memorial Tournament 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that David Freer is limited to +10% and Liam Davies is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Freer: 92%, Liam Davies: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Freer: 68%, Liam Davies: 68%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Liam Davies: 1,382, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for David Freer: 1,366, level confidence: 68%.