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Lyndon Cheetham v Mason McLarney (Fri 14 Sep 2018)

Match won by Lyndon Cheetham. Result: 11-4,9-11,11-5,12-10.

Starting level for Lyndon Cheetham: 1,770, level confidence: 56%.
Starting level for Mason McLarney: 2,395, level confidence: 70%.
Mason McLarney to win as he is currently playing 35% better than Lyndon Cheetham.

Lyndon Cheetham won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 43% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lyndon Cheetham played 31% better than Mason McLarney in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Lyndon Cheetham actually played at a level of 2,357 and Mason McLarney at a level of 1,799. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 33% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 28% and 28% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lyndon Cheetham changes to +28% and Mason McLarney changes to -21%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lyndon Cheetham becomes +11.7% and for Mason McLarney becomes -8.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Manx Pronto Dave Karran Memorial Tournament 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Lyndon Cheetham is limited to +10% and Mason McLarney is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lyndon Cheetham: 75%, Mason McLarney: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lyndon Cheetham: 56%, Mason McLarney: 63%.

A final adjustment of +0.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Lyndon Cheetham: 1,950, level confidence: 56%.
Final level for Mason McLarney: 2,303, level confidence: 63%.