Dean Sowerby v Liam Townsend (Fri 14 Sep 2018)
Match won by Dean Sowerby. Result: 11-9,10-12,11-7,13-11.
Starting level for
Dean Sowerby:
984, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for
Liam Townsend:
949, level confidence: 43%.
Dean Sowerby to win as he is currently playing
4% better than Liam Townsend.
Dean Sowerby won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 15% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dean Sowerby played
22% better than Liam Townsend in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Dean Sowerby actually played at a level of
1,067 and Liam Townsend at a level of
876. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.4% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dean Sowerby changes to +5.6% and Liam Townsend changes to -8.2%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dean Sowerby becomes +4.3% and for Liam Townsend becomes -5.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Manx Pronto Dave Karran Memorial Tournament 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Liam Townsend is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dean Sowerby: 80%, Liam Townsend: 66%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dean Sowerby: 74%, Liam Townsend: 61%.
A final adjustment of +1.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Dean Sowerby:
1,028, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Liam Townsend:
925, level confidence: 61%.