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Thomas Paine v Matthew Marshall (Tue 11 Sep 2018)

Match won by Matthew Marshall. Result: 4-11,5-11,12-10,8-11.

Starting level for Thomas Paine: 6,055, level confidence: 36%.
Starting level for Matthew Marshall: 8,445, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Matthew Marshall to win as he is currently playing 39% better than Thomas Paine.

Matthew Marshall won 75% of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 48% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Matthew Marshall played 33% better than Thomas Paine in this match.

In this case, Matthew Marshall played at level 8,094 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Matthew Marshall would normally have been playing at level 8,155 (based on typical behaviour), Thomas Paine played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.8%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 0.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Matthew Marshall changes to 0% and Thomas Paine changes to +0.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Matthew Marshall becomes 0% and for Thomas Paine becomes +0.4%.

Given Thomas Paine's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 4.3% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Oxfordshire Mens Winter League 2018' so the adjustment for Matthew Marshall is 0% and for Thomas Paine is 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Matthew Marshall: 93%, Thomas Paine: 60%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Matthew Marshall: 90%, Thomas Paine: 59%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Thomas Paine: 6,061, level confidence: 59%.
Final level for Matthew Marshall: 8,432, level confidence: 90%.