SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Josef Bolt v Stuart Milton (Tue 11 Sep 2018)

Match won by Stuart Milton. Result: 4-11,3-11,4-11.

Starting level for Josef Bolt: 4,771, level confidence: 34%.
Starting level for Stuart Milton: 8,033, level confidence: 39%.
Stuart Milton to win as he is currently playing 68% better than Josef Bolt.

Stuart Milton won all of the games and 75% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Stuart Milton played 200% better than Josef Bolt in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Stuart Milton actually played at a level of 10,723 and Josef Bolt at a level of 3,574. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 33% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 25% and 25% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Stuart Milton changes to +22% and Josef Bolt changes to -25%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Stuart Milton becomes +6.2% and for Josef Bolt becomes -7.8%.

Given Stuart Milton's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 11% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Oxfordshire Mens Winter League 2018' so the adjustment for Stuart Milton is +4.1% and for Josef Bolt is -5.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Stuart Milton: 62%, Josef Bolt: 58%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Stuart Milton: 47%, Josef Bolt: 44%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Josef Bolt: 4,504, level confidence: 44%.
Final level for Stuart Milton: 8,354, level confidence: 47%.