Josef Bolt v Stuart Milton (Tue 11 Sep 2018)
Match won by Stuart Milton. Result: 4-11,3-11,4-11.
Starting level for
Josef Bolt:
4,771, level confidence: 34%.
Starting level for
Stuart Milton:
8,033, level confidence: 39%.
Stuart Milton to win as he is currently playing
68% better than Josef Bolt.
Stuart Milton won all of the games and 75% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Stuart Milton played
200% better than Josef Bolt in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Stuart Milton actually played at a level of
10,723 and Josef Bolt at a level of
3,574. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 33% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 25% and 25% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Stuart Milton changes to +22% and Josef Bolt changes to -25%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Stuart Milton becomes +6.2% and for Josef Bolt becomes -7.8%.
Given Stuart Milton's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 11% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Oxfordshire Mens Winter League 2018' so the adjustment for Stuart Milton is +4.1% and for Josef Bolt is -5.8%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Stuart Milton: 62%, Josef Bolt: 58%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Stuart Milton: 47%, Josef Bolt: 44%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Josef Bolt:
4,504, level confidence: 44%.
Final level for Stuart Milton:
8,354, level confidence: 47%.