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Roger Booker v Daniel Mason (Thu 13 Sep 2018)

Match won by Roger Booker. Result: 15-11,6-15,13-15,15-13,15-8.

Starting level for Roger Booker: 934, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Daniel Mason: 860, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Roger Booker to win as he is currently playing 9% better than Daniel Mason.

Roger Booker won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 3% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Roger Booker played 8% better than Daniel Mason in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Roger Booker actually played at a level of 933 and Daniel Mason at a level of 861. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Roger Booker changes to 0% and Daniel Mason changes to 0%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Roger Booker becomes -0.1% and for Daniel Mason becomes 0%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Oxfordshire Mens Winter League 2018' so the adjustment for Roger Booker is 0% and for Daniel Mason is 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Roger Booker: 86%, Daniel Mason: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Roger Booker: 86%, Daniel Mason: 84%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Roger Booker: 932, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Daniel Mason: 860, level confidence: 84%.