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Tom Tuite-Dalton v Richard Read (Thu 13 Sep 2018)

Match won by Richard Read. Result: 14-16,15-11,15-13,8-15,8-15.

Starting level for Tom Tuite-Dalton: 1,571, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for Richard Read: 1,973, level confidence: 60%.
Richard Read to win as he is currently playing 26% better than Tom Tuite-Dalton.

Richard Read won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 17% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Richard Read played 12% better than Tom Tuite-Dalton in this match.

As Richard Read has played below his allowed range at 1,825, his level reduction is 4% before damping. On the assumption that Richard Read would normally have been playing at level 1,940 (based on typical behaviour), Tom Tuite-Dalton played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.1%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.6% and 4.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Richard Read changes to -3.6% and Tom Tuite-Dalton changes to +4.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Richard Read becomes -2.6% and for Tom Tuite-Dalton becomes +3.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Oxfordshire Mens Winter League 2018' so the adjustment for Richard Read is -1.9% and for Tom Tuite-Dalton is +2.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Richard Read: 78%, Tom Tuite-Dalton: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Richard Read: 73%, Tom Tuite-Dalton: 75%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tom Tuite-Dalton: 1,605, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Richard Read: 1,933, level confidence: 73%.