Dylan Roberts v Freddie Davis (Sun 16 Sep 2018)
Match won by Dylan Roberts. Result: 11-1,11-4.
Starting level for
Dylan Roberts:
1,701, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for
Freddie Davis:
400, level confidence: 57%.
Dylan Roberts to win as he is currently playing
325% better than Freddie Davis.
Dylan Roberts won all of the games and 81% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 340% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dylan Roberts played
340% better than Freddie Davis in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Dylan Roberts actually played at a level of
1,730 and Freddie Davis at a level of
393. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.7% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.8% and 0.8% respectively.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 0.6% and 0.6% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dylan Roberts changes to +0.6% and Freddie Davis changes to -0.6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dylan Roberts becomes +0.5% and for Freddie Davis becomes -0.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Kent Junior Closed 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dylan Roberts: 77%, Freddie Davis: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dylan Roberts: 76%, Freddie Davis: 74%.
A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Dylan Roberts:
1,714, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Freddie Davis:
399, level confidence: 74%.