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Freddie Davis v Freddy Miles (Sun 16 Sep 2018)

Match won by Freddy Miles. Result: 7-11,4-11.

Starting level for Freddie Davis: 414, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for Freddy Miles: 734, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Freddy Miles to win as he is currently playing 77% better than Freddie Davis.

Freddy Miles won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 100% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Freddy Miles played 100% better than Freddie Davis in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Freddy Miles actually played at a level of 780 and Freddie Davis at a level of 390. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.2% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.6% and 4.6% respectively.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 3.5% and 3.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Freddy Miles changes to +3.5% and Freddie Davis changes to -3.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Freddy Miles becomes +3.2% and for Freddie Davis becomes -3.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Kent Junior Closed 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Freddy Miles: 87%, Freddie Davis: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Freddy Miles: 82%, Freddie Davis: 85%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Freddie Davis: 402, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Freddy Miles: 760, level confidence: 82%.