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Steve Gaylor v Rob Boyles (Mon 17 Sep 2018)

Match won by Rob Boyles. Result: 11-5,5-11,11-6,7-11,8-11.

Starting level for Steve Gaylor: 1,379, level confidence: 41%.
Starting level for Rob Boyles: 1,539, level confidence: 48%.
Rob Boyles to win as he is currently playing 12% better than Steve Gaylor.

Rob Boyles won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 5% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rob Boyles played 9% better than Steve Gaylor in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rob Boyles actually played at a level of 1,519 and Steve Gaylor at a level of 1,397. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.3% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rob Boyles changes to -1.1% and Steve Gaylor changes to +1.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rob Boyles becomes -0.9% and for Steve Gaylor becomes +1.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Rob Boyles is -0.7% and for Steve Gaylor is +0.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rob Boyles: 69%, Steve Gaylor: 64%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rob Boyles: 69%, Steve Gaylor: 63%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Steve Gaylor: 1,394, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Rob Boyles: 1,533, level confidence: 69%.