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Shaun Mizen v Jonny Williams (Sun 16 Sep 2018)

Match won by Jonny Williams. Result: 7-11,11-3,10-11.

Starting level for Shaun Mizen: 2,547, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Starting level for Jonny Williams: 3,478, level confidence: 30%.
Jonny Williams to win as he is currently playing 37% better than Shaun Mizen.

Jonny Williams won 67% of the games and 47% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 20%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 12% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jonny Williams played 5% better than Shaun Mizen in this match.

As Jonny Williams has played below his allowed range at 2,952, his level reduction is 10.7% before damping. On the assumption that Jonny Williams would normally have been playing at level 3,372 (based on typical behaviour), Shaun Mizen played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 12%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9.1% and 10.6% respectively.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 6.8% and 7.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jonny Williams changes to -6.8% and Shaun Mizen changes to +2.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jonny Williams becomes -3.2% and for Shaun Mizen becomes +2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Surrey Sports Park Graded Autumn 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jonny Williams: 54%, Shaun Mizen: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jonny Williams: 48%, Shaun Mizen: 80%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Shaun Mizen: 2,597, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Jonny Williams: 3,372, level confidence: 48%.