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John Hall v Shaun Mizen (Sun 16 Sep 2018)

Match won by Shaun Mizen. Result: 5-11,11-10,6-11.

Starting level for John Hall: 2,077, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for Shaun Mizen: 2,593, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Shaun Mizen to win as he is currently playing 25% better than John Hall.

Shaun Mizen won 67% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 20%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 45% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Shaun Mizen played 33% better than John Hall in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Shaun Mizen actually played at a level of 2,674 and John Hall at a level of 2,014. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.1% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.8% and 2.8% respectively.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 2.1% and 2.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Shaun Mizen changes to +1.5% and John Hall changes to -2.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Shaun Mizen becomes +1.1% and for John Hall becomes -1.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Surrey Sports Park Graded Autumn 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Shaun Mizen: 89%, John Hall: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Shaun Mizen: 87%, John Hall: 75%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for John Hall: 2,048, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Shaun Mizen: 2,625, level confidence: 87%.