Stuart Milton v Ben Burbank (Thu 13 Sep 2018)
Match won by Stuart Milton. Result: 11-1,11-5,8-11,11-7.
Starting level for
Stuart Milton:
8,409, level confidence: 46%.
Starting level for
Ben Burbank:
6,250, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Stuart Milton to win as he is currently playing
35% better than Ben Burbank.
Stuart Milton won 75% of the games and 63% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 71% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Stuart Milton played
40% better than Ben Burbank in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Stuart Milton actually played at a level of
8,582 and Ben Burbank at a level of
6,124. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.1% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.8% and 1.8% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Stuart Milton changes to +1.8% and Ben Burbank changes to -1.1%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Stuart Milton becomes +0.9% and for Ben Burbank becomes -0.6%.
Given Stuart Milton's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 12% has been applied to his level change.
Given Ben Burbank's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 5.1% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Berkshire Winter League 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Stuart Milton is +0.6% and for Ben Burbank is -0.4%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Stuart Milton: 68%, Ben Burbank: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Stuart Milton: 67%, Ben Burbank: 86%.
A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Stuart Milton:
8,481, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Ben Burbank:
6,239, level confidence: 86%.