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Stuart Milton v Olly Willans (Tue 18 Sep 2018)

Match won by Stuart Milton. Result: 12-10,12-10,11-9.

Starting level for Stuart Milton: 8,484, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Olly Willans: 2,641, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Stuart Milton to win as he is currently playing 221% better than Olly Willans.

Stuart Milton won all of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Stuart Milton played 32% better than Olly Willans in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Stuart Milton was taking it easy by anything up to 27%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 4,217 and 8,484 without affecting his level.

As Stuart Milton has played below his allowed range at 3,835, his level reduction is 10% before damping. On the assumption that Stuart Milton would normally have been playing at level 6,219 (based on typical behaviour), Olly Willans played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 34%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.5% and 18% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Stuart Milton changes to -5.5% and Olly Willans changes to +15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Stuart Milton becomes -2.2% and for Olly Willans becomes +6%.

Given Stuart Milton's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 13% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Oxfordshire Mens Winter League 2018' so the adjustment for Stuart Milton is -1.4% and for Olly Willans is +4.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Stuart Milton: 81%, Olly Willans: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Stuart Milton: 52%, Olly Willans: 57%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Stuart Milton: 8,350, level confidence: 52%.
Final level for Olly Willans: 2,756, level confidence: 57%.