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Matthew Marshall v Paddy Joyce (Mon 03 Sep 2018)

Match won by Matthew Marshall. Result: 11-6,11-7,11-9.

Starting level for Matthew Marshall: 8,501, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Paddy Joyce: 5,637, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Matthew Marshall to win as he is currently playing 51% better than Paddy Joyce.

Matthew Marshall won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Matthew Marshall played 52% better than Paddy Joyce in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Matthew Marshall actually played at a level of 8,525 and Paddy Joyce at a level of 5,621. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Matthew Marshall changes to 0% and Paddy Joyce changes to 0%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Matthew Marshall becomes +0.1% and for Paddy Joyce becomes 0%.

Given Matthew Marshall's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 25% has been applied to his level change.

Given Paddy Joyce's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 5% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Middlesex Mens Summer League 2018' so the adjustment for Matthew Marshall is 0% and for Paddy Joyce is 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Matthew Marshall: 89%, Paddy Joyce: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Matthew Marshall: 89%, Paddy Joyce: 89%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Matthew Marshall: 8,527, level confidence: 89%.
Final level for Paddy Joyce: 5,647, level confidence: 89%.