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Peter Collett v Roger Booker (Wed 19 Sep 2018)

Match won by Peter Collett. Result: 15-13,15-9,16-18,15-13.

Starting level for Peter Collett: 1,116, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Roger Booker: 894, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Peter Collett to win as he is currently playing 25% better than Roger Booker.

Peter Collett won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 15% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Collett played 22% better than Roger Booker in this match.

In this case, Peter Collett played at level 1,093 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Peter Collett would normally have been playing at level 1,098 (based on typical behaviour), Roger Booker played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.4%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Peter Collett changes to 0% and Roger Booker changes to +0.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Peter Collett becomes 0% and for Roger Booker becomes +0.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Oxfordshire Mens Winter League 2018' so the adjustment for Peter Collett is 0% and for Roger Booker is 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Collett: 85%, Roger Booker: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Collett: 84%, Roger Booker: 85%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Peter Collett: 1,114, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Roger Booker: 895, level confidence: 85%.