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Calum Baker v Peter Sharples (Thu 20 Sep 2018)

Match won by Calum Baker. Result: 13-15,15-3,15-14,15-9.

Starting level for Calum Baker: 1,384, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Peter Sharples: 1,127, level confidence: 26%.
Calum Baker to win as he is currently playing 23% better than Peter Sharples.

Calum Baker won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 41% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Calum Baker played 30% better than Peter Sharples in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Calum Baker actually played at a level of 1,426 and Peter Sharples at a level of 1,094. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.1% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Calum Baker changes to +0.9% and Peter Sharples changes to -2.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Calum Baker becomes +0.8% and for Peter Sharples becomes -2.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Calum Baker is +0.6% and for Peter Sharples is -2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Calum Baker: 91%, Peter Sharples: 51%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Calum Baker: 88%, Peter Sharples: 50%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Calum Baker: 1,396, level confidence: 88%.
Final level for Peter Sharples: 1,108, level confidence: 50%.