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Dan Willets v Matthew Marshall (Fri 21 Sep 2018)

Match won by Matthew Marshall. Result: 2-11,5-11,3-11.

Starting level for Dan Willets: 2,746, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Matthew Marshall: 8,566, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Matthew Marshall to win as he is currently playing 212% better than Dan Willets.

Matthew Marshall won all of the games and 77% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 230% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Matthew Marshall played 230% better than Dan Willets in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Matthew Marshall actually played at a level of 8,810 and Dan Willets at a level of 2,670. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.9% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.6% and 1.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Matthew Marshall changes to +1.4% and Dan Willets changes to -1.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Matthew Marshall becomes +0.7% and for Dan Willets becomes -1.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'West England Masters 2018/19' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Matthew Marshall: 90%, Dan Willets: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Matthew Marshall: 87%, Dan Willets: 82%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Dan Willets: 2,712, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Matthew Marshall: 8,615, level confidence: 87%.