Vikram Malhotra v Nathan Lake (Wed 19 Sep 2018)
Match won by Vikram Malhotra. Result: 11-9,6-11,11-7,11-5.
Starting level for
Vikram Malhotra:
27,779, level confidence: 52%.
Starting level for
Nathan Lake:
32,253, level confidence: 49%.
Nathan Lake to win as he is currently playing
16% better than Vikram Malhotra.
Vikram Malhotra won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 22% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Vikram Malhotra played
24% better than Nathan Lake in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Vikram Malhotra actually played at a level of
33,327 and Nathan Lake at a level of
26,884. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 20% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Vikram Malhotra changes to +18% and Nathan Lake changes to -18%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Vikram Malhotra becomes +4% and for Nathan Lake becomes -4.1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Nash Cup' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Vikram Malhotra: 72%, Nathan Lake: 70%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Vikram Malhotra: 60%, Nathan Lake: 59%.
A final adjustment of +0.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Vikram Malhotra:
28,817, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Nathan Lake:
31,614, level confidence: 59%.