Mark Webster-Smith v Lyndon Cheetham (Mon 24 Sep 2018)
Match won by Mark Webster-Smith. Result: 11-4,5-11,11-7,8-11,11-7.
Starting level for
Mark Webster-Smith:
1,689, level confidence: 55%.
Starting level for
Lyndon Cheetham:
2,021, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Lyndon Cheetham to win as he is currently playing
20% better than Mark Webster-Smith.
Mark Webster-Smith won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 15% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Webster-Smith played
11% better than Lyndon Cheetham in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mark Webster-Smith actually played at a level of
1,949 and Lyndon Cheetham at a level of
1,752. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark Webster-Smith changes to +14% and Lyndon Cheetham changes to -9.9%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark Webster-Smith becomes +6.7% and for Lyndon Cheetham becomes -4.9%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Mark Webster-Smith is +5.1% and for Lyndon Cheetham is -3.6%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Webster-Smith: 74%, Lyndon Cheetham: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Webster-Smith: 64%, Lyndon Cheetham: 75%.
A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Mark Webster-Smith:
1,779, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Lyndon Cheetham:
1,955, level confidence: 75%.