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David Freer v Allister Crossley (Mon 24 Sep 2018)

Match won by Allister Crossley. Result: 9-11,3-11,8-11.

Starting level for David Freer: 1,482, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Allister Crossley: 1,838, level confidence: 56%.
Allister Crossley to win as he is currently playing 24% better than David Freer.

Allister Crossley won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Allister Crossley played 65% better than David Freer in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Allister Crossley actually played at a level of 2,120 and David Freer at a level of 1,285. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 14% and 14% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Allister Crossley changes to +14% and David Freer changes to -9.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Allister Crossley becomes +6.4% and for David Freer becomes -5.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Allister Crossley is +4.8% and for David Freer is -4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Allister Crossley: 75%, David Freer: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Allister Crossley: 65%, David Freer: 76%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for David Freer: 1,429, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Allister Crossley: 1,931, level confidence: 65%.