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Robert Colquitt v Steve Gaylor (Mon 24 Sep 2018)

Match won by Steve Gaylor. Result: 7-11,11-10,8-11,2-11.

Starting level for Robert Colquitt: 1,368, level confidence: 49%.
Starting level for Steve Gaylor: 1,466, level confidence: 67%.
Steve Gaylor to win as he is currently playing 7% better than Robert Colquitt.

Steve Gaylor won 75% of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 54% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Steve Gaylor played 34% better than Robert Colquitt in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Steve Gaylor actually played at a level of 1,642 and Robert Colquitt at a level of 1,221. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Steve Gaylor changes to +8.5% and Robert Colquitt changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Steve Gaylor becomes +4.9% and for Robert Colquitt becomes -6.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Steve Gaylor is +3.7% and for Robert Colquitt is -4.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Steve Gaylor: 82%, Robert Colquitt: 70%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Steve Gaylor: 73%, Robert Colquitt: 63%.

A final adjustment of +1.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Robert Colquitt: 1,340, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Steve Gaylor: 1,523, level confidence: 73%.