James Greenhead v Matthew Marshall (Sat 22 Sep 2018)
Match won by Matthew Marshall. Result: 11-9,3-11,10-12,8-11.
Starting level for
James Greenhead:
5,363, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Matthew Marshall:
8,619, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Matthew Marshall to win as he is currently playing
61% better than James Greenhead.
Matthew Marshall won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 34% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Matthew Marshall played
28% better than James Greenhead in this match.
As Matthew Marshall has played below his allowed range at 7,209, his level reduction is 4.9% before damping. On the assumption that Matthew Marshall would normally have been playing at level 8,075 (based on typical behaviour), James Greenhead played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.4%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.9% and 6.6% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Matthew Marshall changes to -3.6% and James Greenhead changes to +6.6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Matthew Marshall becomes -1.7% and for James Greenhead becomes +2.7%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'West England Masters 2018/19' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Matthew Marshall: 93%, James Greenhead: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Matthew Marshall: 83%, James Greenhead: 80%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for James Greenhead:
5,501, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Matthew Marshall:
8,461, level confidence: 83%.