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Joss Hargrave v Matthew Marshall (Sat 22 Sep 2018)

Match won by Matthew Marshall. Result: 11-13,12-10,6-11,7-11.

Starting level for Joss Hargrave: 7,371, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for Matthew Marshall: 8,454, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Matthew Marshall to win as he is currently playing 15% better than Joss Hargrave.

Matthew Marshall won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 25% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Matthew Marshall played 25% better than Joss Hargrave in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Matthew Marshall actually played at a level of 8,826 and Joss Hargrave at a level of 7,061. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.4% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Matthew Marshall changes to +3.1% and Joss Hargrave changes to -4.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Matthew Marshall becomes +1.6% and for Joss Hargrave becomes -1.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'West England Masters 2018/19' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Matthew Marshall: 91%, Joss Hargrave: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Matthew Marshall: 87%, Joss Hargrave: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Joss Hargrave: 7,222, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Matthew Marshall: 8,573, level confidence: 87%.