SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Mike Potter v Matthew Marshall (Sun 23 Sep 2018)

Match won by Matthew Marshall. Result: 9-11,4-11,11-6,9-11.

Starting level for Mike Potter: 7,471, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for Matthew Marshall: 8,576, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Matthew Marshall to win as he is currently playing 15% better than Mike Potter.

Matthew Marshall won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 18% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Matthew Marshall played 23% better than Mike Potter in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Matthew Marshall actually played at a level of 8,868 and Mike Potter at a level of 7,225. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.4% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Matthew Marshall changes to +2.3% and Mike Potter changes to -3.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Matthew Marshall becomes +1.2% and for Mike Potter becomes -1.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'West England Masters 2018/19' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Matthew Marshall: 93%, Mike Potter: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Matthew Marshall: 90%, Mike Potter: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mike Potter: 7,338, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Matthew Marshall: 8,663, level confidence: 90%.