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Steven Morley v Dafydd Lewis (Mon 24 Sep 2018)

Match won by Dafydd Lewis. Result: 11-9,3-11,9-11,10-11.

Starting level for Steven Morley: 1,790, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Dafydd Lewis: 1,804, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Dafydd Lewis to win as he is currently playing 1% better than Steven Morley.

Dafydd Lewis won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 27% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dafydd Lewis played 26% better than Steven Morley in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Dafydd Lewis actually played at a level of 2,015 and Steven Morley at a level of 1,602. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dafydd Lewis changes to +10.2% and Steven Morley changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dafydd Lewis becomes +5.2% and for Steven Morley becomes -5.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Dafydd Lewis is +3.9% and for Steven Morley is -4.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dafydd Lewis: 92%, Steven Morley: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dafydd Lewis: 82%, Steven Morley: 77%.

A final adjustment of +1.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Steven Morley: 1,757, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Dafydd Lewis: 1,879, level confidence: 82%.