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Martin Packman v Roger Booker (Tue 25 Sep 2018)

Match won by Martin Packman. Result: 15-11,15-9,15-7.

Starting level for Martin Packman: 1,400, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Roger Booker: 895, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Martin Packman to win as he is currently playing 56% better than Roger Booker.

Martin Packman won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 67% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Martin Packman played 67% better than Roger Booker in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Martin Packman actually played at a level of 1,445 and Roger Booker at a level of 867. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.2% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.6% and 2.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Martin Packman changes to +2.6% and Roger Booker changes to -2.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Martin Packman becomes +2.2% and for Roger Booker becomes -2.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Oxfordshire Mens Winter League 2018' so the adjustment for Martin Packman is +1.7% and for Roger Booker is -1.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Martin Packman: 87%, Roger Booker: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Martin Packman: 85%, Roger Booker: 88%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Martin Packman: 1,421, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Roger Booker: 878, level confidence: 88%.