Joe Brooke v Stuart Milton (Tue 25 Sep 2018)
Match won by Joe Brooke. Result: 11-3,11-6,11-3.
Starting level for
Joe Brooke:
17,005, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for
Stuart Milton:
8,347, level confidence: 50%.
Joe Brooke to win as he is currently playing
104% better than Stuart Milton.
Joe Brooke won all of the games and 73% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joe Brooke played
175% better than Stuart Milton in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Joe Brooke actually played at a level of
19,757 and Stuart Milton at a level of
7,184. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 11.1% and 11.1% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joe Brooke changes to +8.5% and Stuart Milton changes to -11.1%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joe Brooke becomes +2.5% and for Stuart Milton becomes -3.6%.
Given Joe Brooke's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 34% has been applied to his level change.
Given Stuart Milton's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 12% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Oxfordshire Mens Winter League 2018' so the adjustment for Joe Brooke is +1.4% and for Stuart Milton is -2.4%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joe Brooke: 81%, Stuart Milton: 71%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joe Brooke: 70%, Stuart Milton: 61%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Joe Brooke:
17,221, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Stuart Milton:
8,141, level confidence: 61%.