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Jay Morris v Stuart Milton (Thu 27 Sep 2018)

Match won by Stuart Milton. Result: 4-11,6-11,4-11.

Starting level for Jay Morris: 4,742, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Stuart Milton: 8,087, level confidence: 61%.
Stuart Milton to win as he is currently playing 71% better than Jay Morris.

Stuart Milton won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Stuart Milton played 136% better than Jay Morris in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Stuart Milton actually played at a level of 9,508 and Jay Morris at a level of 4,033. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 18% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 13% and 13% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Stuart Milton changes to +13% and Jay Morris changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Stuart Milton becomes +4.1% and for Jay Morris becomes -4.4%.

Given Stuart Milton's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 11% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Berkshire Winter League 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Stuart Milton is +2.8% and for Jay Morris is -3.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Stuart Milton: 78%, Jay Morris: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Stuart Milton: 66%, Jay Morris: 69%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jay Morris: 4,604, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Stuart Milton: 8,331, level confidence: 66%.