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Ewan McCracken v Duncan Whale (Sun 30 Sep 2018)

Match won by Ewan McCracken. Result: 3-0.

Starting level for Ewan McCracken: 1,029, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for Duncan Whale: 769, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Ewan McCracken to win as he is currently playing 34% better than Duncan Whale.

Ewan McCracken won all of the games. There are no points scores.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ewan McCracken actually played at a level of 1,177 and Duncan Whale at a level of 672. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 12% and 12% respectively.
Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 6.9%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ewan McCracken changes to +6.9% and Duncan Whale changes to -5.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ewan McCracken becomes +4.8% and for Duncan Whale becomes -4.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Henley Internal League' so the adjustment for Ewan McCracken is +2.4% and for Duncan Whale is -2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ewan McCracken: 77%, Duncan Whale: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ewan McCracken: 67%, Duncan Whale: 77%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ewan McCracken: 1,052, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Duncan Whale: 753, level confidence: 77%.