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Ray Owens v Nick Dear (Sun 30 Sep 2018)

Match won by Ray Owens. Result: 3-0.

Starting level for Ray Owens: 266, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Starting level for Nick Dear: 132, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Ray Owens to win as he is currently playing 102% better than Nick Dear.

Ray Owens won all of the games. There are no points scores.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Ray Owens was taking it easy by anything up to 13%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 190 and 266 without affecting his level.

In this case, Ray Owens played at level 232 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Ray Owens would normally have been playing at level 232 (based on typical behaviour), Nick Dear played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.3%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%.
Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 0%.

As this result doesn't have points scores, the difference in levels is significant and the match was a straight games win, leave the levels unchanged. Provide points scores if you can!

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ray Owens: 92%, Nick Dear: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ray Owens: 86%, Nick Dear: 83%.

Final level for Ray Owens: 266, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Nick Dear: 132, level confidence: 83%.