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Rick Scannell v Zoe Buch (Sun 30 Sep 2018)

Match won by Rick Scannell. Result: 3-0.

Starting level for Rick Scannell: 261, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Zoe Buch: 103, level confidence: 10%.
Rick Scannell to win as he is currently playing 153% better than Zoe Buch.

Rick Scannell won all of the games. There are no points scores.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Rick Scannell was taking it easy by anything up to 19%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 154 and 261 without affecting his level.

In this case, Rick Scannell played at level 195 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Rick Scannell would normally have been playing at level 211 (based on typical behaviour), Zoe Buch played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.3%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 5.1% respectively.
Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 2.9%.

As this result doesn't have points scores, the difference in levels is significant and the match was a straight games win, leave the levels unchanged. Provide points scores if you can!

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rick Scannell: 82%, Zoe Buch: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rick Scannell: 68%, Zoe Buch: 26%.

Final level for Rick Scannell: 261, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Zoe Buch: 103, level confidence: 26%.