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Ian Tims v Tom Tuite-Dalton (Mon 01 Oct 2018)

Match won by Tom Tuite-Dalton. Result: 9-15,11-15,7-15.

Starting level for Ian Tims: 1,326, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Tom Tuite-Dalton: 1,630, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Tom Tuite-Dalton to win as he is currently playing 23% better than Ian Tims.

Tom Tuite-Dalton won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 67% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom Tuite-Dalton played 67% better than Ian Tims in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tom Tuite-Dalton actually played at a level of 1,898 and Ian Tims at a level of 1,139. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom Tuite-Dalton changes to +15% and Ian Tims changes to -14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom Tuite-Dalton becomes +7.1% and for Ian Tims becomes -7.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Berkshire Vets League 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Tom Tuite-Dalton is +5.3% and for Ian Tims is -5.6%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Ian Tims is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom Tuite-Dalton: 85%, Ian Tims: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom Tuite-Dalton: 73%, Ian Tims: 74%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ian Tims: 1,264, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Tom Tuite-Dalton: 1,719, level confidence: 73%.