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Liam Davies v Steve Gaylor (Mon 01 Oct 2018)

Match won by Liam Davies. Result: 11-6,11-5,8-11,3-11,11-5.

Starting level for Liam Davies: 1,540, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for Steve Gaylor: 1,523, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Liam Davies to win as he is currently playing 1% better than Steve Gaylor.

Liam Davies won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 16% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Liam Davies played 11% better than Steve Gaylor in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Liam Davies actually played at a level of 1,617 and Steve Gaylor at a level of 1,451. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Liam Davies changes to +4.3% and Steve Gaylor changes to -5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Liam Davies becomes +3.1% and for Steve Gaylor becomes -3.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Liam Davies is +2.3% and for Steve Gaylor is -2.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Liam Davies: 90%, Steve Gaylor: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Liam Davies: 86%, Steve Gaylor: 80%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Liam Davies: 1,579, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Steve Gaylor: 1,489, level confidence: 80%.