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Chris Cave v Lyndon Cheetham (Mon 01 Oct 2018)

Match won by Chris Cave. Result: 7-11,11-7,11-10,11-5.

Starting level for Chris Cave: 1,639, level confidence: 51%.
Starting level for Lyndon Cheetham: 1,950, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Lyndon Cheetham to win as he is currently playing 19% better than Chris Cave.

Chris Cave won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Cave played 24% better than Lyndon Cheetham in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Chris Cave actually played at a level of 1,989 and Lyndon Cheetham at a level of 1,607. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Cave changes to +19% and Lyndon Cheetham changes to -13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Cave becomes +8.9% and for Lyndon Cheetham becomes -6.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Chris Cave is +6.7% and for Lyndon Cheetham is -4.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Cave: 72%, Lyndon Cheetham: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Cave: 59%, Lyndon Cheetham: 70%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Chris Cave: 1,752, level confidence: 59%.
Final level for Lyndon Cheetham: 1,871, level confidence: 70%.