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Alan Macnair v Peter Ferguson (Thu 04 Oct 2018)

Match won by Alan Macnair. Result: 10-15,14-15,15-11,15-12,15-8.

Starting level for Alan Macnair: 942, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for Peter Ferguson: 1,286, level confidence: 27%.
Peter Ferguson to win as he is currently playing 37% better than Alan Macnair.

Alan Macnair won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 13% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alan Macnair played 11% better than Peter Ferguson in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Alan Macnair actually played at a level of 1,158 and Peter Ferguson at a level of 1,046. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 23% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 19% and 19% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alan Macnair changes to +8.8% and Peter Ferguson changes to -19%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alan Macnair becomes +5.9% and for Peter Ferguson becomes -9.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Alan Macnair is +4.4% and for Peter Ferguson is -7.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alan Macnair: 77%, Peter Ferguson: 52%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alan Macnair: 63%, Peter Ferguson: 42%.

A final adjustment of +1.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Alan Macnair: 984, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Peter Ferguson: 1,243, level confidence: 42%.