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Gregoire Marche v Joel Makin (Fri 28 Sep 2018)

Match won by Gregoire Marche. Result: 11-7,11-6,11-5.

Starting level for Gregoire Marche: 41,221, level confidence: 53%.
Starting level for Joel Makin: 45,963, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Joel Makin to win as he is currently playing 12% better than Gregoire Marche.

Gregoire Marche won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Gregoire Marche played 83% better than Joel Makin in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Gregoire Marche actually played at a level of 58,936 and Joel Makin at a level of 32,147. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 43% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Gregoire Marche changes to +40% and Joel Makin changes to -22%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Gregoire Marche becomes +7.3% and for Joel Makin becomes -4.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Netsuite Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Gregoire Marche is limited to +5.2% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Gregoire Marche: 72%, Joel Makin: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Gregoire Marche: 51%, Joel Makin: 64%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Gregoire Marche: 43,432, level confidence: 51%.
Final level for Joel Makin: 44,277, level confidence: 64%.