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Karim Ali Fathi v Cesar Salazar (Fri 28 Sep 2018)

Match won by Karim Ali Fathi. Result: 11-9,8-11,11-9,4-11,11-7.

Starting level for Karim Ali Fathi: 32,413, level confidence: 48%.
Starting level for Cesar Salazar: 43,268, level confidence: 52%.
Cesar Salazar to win as he is currently playing 33% better than Karim Ali Fathi.

Karim Ali Fathi won 60% of the games and 49% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 4% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Karim Ali Fathi played 6% better than Cesar Salazar in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Karim Ali Fathi actually played at a level of 38,636 and Cesar Salazar at a level of 36,299. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 16% and 16% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Karim Ali Fathi changes to +16% and Cesar Salazar changes to -15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Karim Ali Fathi becomes +3.7% and for Cesar Salazar becomes -3.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Netsuite Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Karim Ali Fathi: 69%, Cesar Salazar: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Karim Ali Fathi: 58%, Cesar Salazar: 60%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Karim Ali Fathi: 33,638, level confidence: 58%.
Final level for Cesar Salazar: 41,988, level confidence: 60%.