Ryan Cuskelly v Nathan Lake (Fri 28 Sep 2018)
Match won by Ryan Cuskelly. Result: 11-9,15-13,11-7.
Starting level for
Ryan Cuskelly:
46,199, level confidence: 36%.
Starting level for
Nathan Lake:
31,614, level confidence: 56%.
Ryan Cuskelly to win as he is currently playing
46% better than Nathan Lake.
Ryan Cuskelly won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 28% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ryan Cuskelly played
37% better than Nathan Lake in this match.
In this case, Ryan Cuskelly played at level 43,699 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Ryan Cuskelly would normally have been playing at level 44,210 (based on typical behaviour), Nathan Lake played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.2%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ryan Cuskelly changes to 0% and Nathan Lake changes to +0.6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ryan Cuskelly becomes 0% and for Nathan Lake becomes 0%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Netsuite Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ryan Cuskelly: 60%, Nathan Lake: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ryan Cuskelly: 58%, Nathan Lake: 73%.
A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Ryan Cuskelly:
46,129, level confidence: 58%.
Final level for Nathan Lake:
31,880, level confidence: 73%.