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Gregory Gaultier v Ryan Cuskelly (Sat 29 Sep 2018)

Match won by Gregory Gaultier. Result: 11-5,11-9,11-3.

Starting level for Gregory Gaultier: 66,767, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for Ryan Cuskelly: 46,584, level confidence: 58%.
Gregory Gaultier to win as he is currently playing 43% better than Ryan Cuskelly.

Gregory Gaultier won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Gregory Gaultier played 94% better than Ryan Cuskelly in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Gregory Gaultier actually played at a level of 77,702 and Ryan Cuskelly at a level of 40,028. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 14% and 14% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Gregory Gaultier changes to +13% and Ryan Cuskelly changes to -14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Gregory Gaultier becomes +2.7% and for Ryan Cuskelly becomes -3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Netsuite Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Gregory Gaultier: 77%, Ryan Cuskelly: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Gregory Gaultier: 66%, Ryan Cuskelly: 65%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Gregory Gaultier: 68,260, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Ryan Cuskelly: 45,597, level confidence: 65%.