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Ali Farag v Gregory Gaultier (Mon 01 Oct 2018)

Match won by Ali Farag. Result: 2-11,11-6,9-11,11-5,13-11.

Starting level for Ali Farag: 68,552, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Gregory Gaultier: 71,177, level confidence: 61%.
Gregory Gaultier to win as he is currently playing 4% better than Ali Farag.

Ali Farag won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 5% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ali Farag played 9% better than Gregory Gaultier in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ali Farag actually played at a level of 72,806 and Gregory Gaultier at a level of 67,018. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.2% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ali Farag changes to +5.5% and Gregory Gaultier changes to -6.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ali Farag becomes +1.5% and for Gregory Gaultier becomes -1.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Netsuite Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ali Farag: 82%, Gregory Gaultier: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ali Farag: 78%, Gregory Gaultier: 74%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ali Farag: 69,609, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Gregory Gaultier: 70,243, level confidence: 74%.