Nathan Quilliam v David O'Neill (Thu 04 Oct 2018)
Match won by Nathan Quilliam. Result: 15-11,3-15,12-15,15-9,15-8.
Starting level for
Nathan Quilliam:
1,488, level confidence: 37%.
Starting level for
David O'Neill:
1,734, level confidence: 49%.
David O'Neill to win as he is currently playing
17% better than Nathan Quilliam.
Nathan Quilliam won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 3% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nathan Quilliam played
8% better than David O'Neill in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nathan Quilliam actually played at a level of
1,672 and David O'Neill at a level of
1,543. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nathan Quilliam changes to +11% and David O'Neill changes to -8.4%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nathan Quilliam becomes +6% and for David O'Neill becomes -4.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Nathan Quilliam is +4.5% and for David O'Neill is -3.4%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nathan Quilliam: 61%, David O'Neill: 70%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nathan Quilliam: 54%, David O'Neill: 62%.
Final level for Nathan Quilliam:
1,555, level confidence: 54%.
Final level for David O'Neill:
1,677, level confidence: 62%.