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Steven Morley v Lyndon Cheetham (Mon 08 Oct 2018)

Match won by Steven Morley. Result: 11-7,11-8,11-10.

Starting level for Steven Morley: 1,754, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Lyndon Cheetham: 1,869, level confidence: 68%.
Lyndon Cheetham to win as he is currently playing 7% better than Steven Morley.

Steven Morley won all of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 32% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Steven Morley played 40% better than Lyndon Cheetham in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Steven Morley actually played at a level of 2,139 and Lyndon Cheetham at a level of 1,532. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 22% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Steven Morley changes to +20% and Lyndon Cheetham changes to -21%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Steven Morley becomes +8.9% and for Lyndon Cheetham becomes -9.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Steven Morley is +6.7% and for Lyndon Cheetham is -6.7%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Lyndon Cheetham is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Steven Morley: 85%, Lyndon Cheetham: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Steven Morley: 70%, Lyndon Cheetham: 68%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Steven Morley: 1,868, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Lyndon Cheetham: 1,778, level confidence: 68%.