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Mark Grace v Steve Gaylor (Mon 08 Oct 2018)

Match won by Mark Grace. Result: 11-8,7-11,11-10,6-11,11-10.

Starting level for Mark Grace: 1,184, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for Steve Gaylor: 1,580, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Steve Gaylor to win as he is currently playing 33% better than Mark Grace.

Mark Grace won 60% of the games and 48% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 9% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Grace played 6% better than Steve Gaylor in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mark Grace actually played at a level of 1,405 and Steve Gaylor at a level of 1,332. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 16% and 16% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark Grace changes to +14% and Steve Gaylor changes to -16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark Grace becomes +7.9% and for Steve Gaylor becomes -7.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Mark Grace is +6% and for Steve Gaylor is -5.7%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Steve Gaylor is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Grace: 89%, Steve Gaylor: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Grace: 75%, Steve Gaylor: 72%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mark Grace: 1,253, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Steve Gaylor: 1,503, level confidence: 72%.