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Ian Sheard v Terry Holt (Tue 09 Oct 2018)

Match won by Ian Sheard. Result: 15-14,15-7,15-7.

Starting level for Ian Sheard: 1,059, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Terry Holt: 819, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Ian Sheard to win as he is currently playing 29% better than Terry Holt.

Ian Sheard won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 61% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ian Sheard played 61% better than Terry Holt in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ian Sheard actually played at a level of 1,181 and Terry Holt at a level of 735. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 11% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10% and 10% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ian Sheard changes to +9.8% and Terry Holt changes to -10%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ian Sheard becomes +6.2% and for Terry Holt becomes -6.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Ian Sheard is +4.6% and for Terry Holt is -4.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ian Sheard: 86%, Terry Holt: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ian Sheard: 77%, Terry Holt: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ian Sheard: 1,106, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Terry Holt: 780, level confidence: 76%.