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Jim Lynn v Jim Usherwood (Tue 09 Oct 2018)

Match won by Jim Usherwood. Result: 4-11,4-11,7-11.

Starting level for Jim Lynn: 1,675, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for Jim Usherwood: 2,744, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Jim Usherwood to win as he is currently playing 64% better than Jim Lynn.

Jim Usherwood won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jim Usherwood played 120% better than Jim Lynn in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jim Usherwood actually played at a level of 3,180 and Jim Lynn at a level of 1,445. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 12% and 12% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jim Usherwood changes to +10.8% and Jim Lynn changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jim Usherwood becomes +4.7% and for Jim Lynn becomes -6.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Oxfordshire Mens Winter League 2018' so the adjustment for Jim Usherwood is +3.5% and for Jim Lynn is -4.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jim Usherwood: 84%, Jim Lynn: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jim Usherwood: 73%, Jim Lynn: 68%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jim Lynn: 1,600, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Jim Usherwood: 2,837, level confidence: 73%.