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Steve Gaylor v Marc Taggart (Thu 11 Oct 2018)

Match won by Steve Gaylor. Result: 15-6,13-15,15-2,15-6.

Starting level for Steve Gaylor: 1,507, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Marc Taggart: 1,108, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Steve Gaylor to win as he is currently playing 36% better than Marc Taggart.

Steve Gaylor won 75% of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 100% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Steve Gaylor played 50% better than Marc Taggart in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Steve Gaylor actually played at a level of 1,581 and Marc Taggart at a level of 1,056. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.9% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.2% and 4.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Steve Gaylor changes to +4.2% and Marc Taggart changes to -4.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Steve Gaylor becomes +3.1% and for Marc Taggart becomes -3.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Steve Gaylor is +2.3% and for Marc Taggart is -2.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Steve Gaylor: 84%, Marc Taggart: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Steve Gaylor: 80%, Marc Taggart: 82%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Steve Gaylor: 1,539, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Marc Taggart: 1,079, level confidence: 82%.