Cesar Salazar v Joshua Masters (Mon 08 Oct 2018)
Match won by Cesar Salazar. Result: 11-2,8-11,11-8,11-9.
Starting level for
Cesar Salazar:
41,822, level confidence: 58%.
Starting level for
Joshua Masters:
35,219, level confidence: 66%.
Cesar Salazar to win as he is currently playing
19% better than Joshua Masters.
Cesar Salazar won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 37% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Cesar Salazar played
29% better than Joshua Masters in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Cesar Salazar actually played at a level of
43,565 and Joshua Masters at a level of
33,810. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.2% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Cesar Salazar changes to +3.8% and Joshua Masters changes to -3.3%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Cesar Salazar becomes +1.3% and for Joshua Masters becomes -1.2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Us Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Cesar Salazar: 76%, Joshua Masters: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Cesar Salazar: 73%, Joshua Masters: 78%.
A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Cesar Salazar:
42,250, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Joshua Masters:
35,008, level confidence: 78%.