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Mohamed Abouelghar v Nathan Lake (Tue 09 Oct 2018)

Match won by Mohamed Abouelghar. Result: 11-6,11-4,11-3.

Starting level for Mohamed Abouelghar: 49,078, level confidence: 58%.
Starting level for Nathan Lake: 33,026, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Mohamed Abouelghar to win as he is currently playing 49% better than Nathan Lake.

Mohamed Abouelghar won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Abouelghar played 154% better than Nathan Lake in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mohamed Abouelghar actually played at a level of 64,144 and Nathan Lake at a level of 25,269. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 31% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 25% and 25% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohamed Abouelghar changes to +25% and Nathan Lake changes to -19%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohamed Abouelghar becomes +4.7% and for Nathan Lake becomes -4.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Us Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Abouelghar: 76%, Nathan Lake: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Abouelghar: 58%, Nathan Lake: 64%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mohamed Abouelghar: 50,931, level confidence: 58%.
Final level for Nathan Lake: 31,941, level confidence: 64%.